Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42bbe7cfb159771fc6d724c3ed5b5aad2d50447b7c11ecec93a59aaac9a3ce0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Nemiga Gaming, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6185…2965backed Nemiga Gaming | 61c | 10,933$6,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,243.65 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 8,988$3,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,505.17 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8681…ef99backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 2,500$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.92 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Nemiga Gaming | 61c | 2,063$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.78 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…ea40backed Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 1,298$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.19 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 998.28$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.31 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 807.73$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.71 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Nemiga Gaming | 76c | 499.5$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…273dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 60c | 498.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.52 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b2bdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 431.46$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.05 | 147 | 62.6%92 W · 55 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 408.47$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Nemiga Gaming | 79c | 403.53$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Ilbirs eSports | 16c | 342.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…327abacked Nemiga Gaming | 63c | 312.9$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.77 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…c639backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 264.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Ilbirs eSports | 37c | 260.66$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 131 | 45%59 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 247.73$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 243.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 63c | 235.6$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 221.16$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.28 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 168.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 157.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…d1acbacked Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 157.47$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 79c | 99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Nemiga Gaming | 61c | 98.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 94.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 89.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 87.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Nemiga Gaming | 71c | 85.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 79.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 78.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 78.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 77.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf219…47e9backed Ilbirs eSports | 20c | 72.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 67.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 55.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Nemiga Gaming | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6489…3a86backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ilbirs eSports | 37c | 47.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 43.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Nemiga Gaming | 63c | 35.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 33.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…f9d1backed Nemiga Gaming | 63c | 29.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 162 | 40.7%66 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 26.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 22.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Nemiga Gaming | 61c | 21.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.