Fifa International · resolved market
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46093e5cf1b791774ffebeb724eab34d174da6138bcd1671f70323aeec05bf83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 13c | 2,104$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.36 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…8c97backed Yes | 14c | 1,071$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 161 | 23.6%38 W · 123 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35b…4a53backed Yes | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 79 | 15.2%12 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…593dbacked Yes | 16c | 618.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…d14bbacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 276 | 37.7%104 W · 172 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…7bbfbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 177 | 27.1%48 W · 129 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 270.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…43d2backed Yes | 15c | 138.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…03b7backed Yes | 16c | 123.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…f52ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 38.4%68 W · 109 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Luis Díaz: 2+ goalsthis page
- Abbosbek Fayzullayev: 1+ goalsYes won
- Andrés Gómez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Andrés Gómez: 1+ shotsNo won
- Andrés Gómez: 1+ shots on targetNo won
- Cucho Hernández: 1+ goalsNo won
- Cucho Hernández: 1+ shotsNo won
- Cucho Hernández: 1+ shots on targetNo won
- Eldor Shomurodov: 1+ goalsNo won
- Igor Sergeyev: 1+ shotsNo won
- Jaloliddin Masharipov: 1+ goalsNo won
- James Rodríguez: 1+ assistsNo won
- James Rodríguez: 1+ goalsNo won
- James Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assistsNo won
- James Rodríguez: 3+ shotsNo won
- Jaminton Campaz: 1+ goalsYes won
- Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jhon Arias: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jhon Arias: 2+ shotsYes won
- Jorge Carrascal: 1+ shotsNo won
- Juan Fernando Quintero: 1+ goalsNo won
- Juan Fernando Quintero: 1+ shotsNo won
- Juan Fernando Quintero: 1+ shots on targetNo won
- Luis Díaz: 1+ assistsYes won
- Luis Díaz: 1+ goalsYes won
- Luis Díaz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 4+ shotsNo won
- Luis Suárez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Luis Suárez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Luis Suárez: 2+ goals + assistsNo won
- Richard Ríos: 1+ shotsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.