Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x460dded6c960c56a88a3b8410fbbe0015bc3db36c72848807b097d6c7eea08e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 39c | 933.89$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.38 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 869.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 74c | 707.66$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.56 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 535.98$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 68c | 429.2$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 14c | 355.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 330.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 7c | 253.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 12c | 210.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…f20bbacked Yes | 8c | 159.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 34c | 158.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 29c | 151.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 15c | 123.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked No | 68c | 97.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 91.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…030dbacked No | 63c | 88.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 32c | 87.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b1…50a6backed Yes | 24c | 77.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked Yes | 31c | 75.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 68.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…c80bbacked Yes | 29c | 59.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 37c | 59.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 60c | 55.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 55c | 47.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 37c | 47.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 67c | 45.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 44.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd835…59babacked Yes | 24c | 42.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0027…24acbacked No | 78c | 38.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 76c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked No | 66c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed No | 78c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.