Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Cirstea (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4635fe3f7c7df449957bca7c13f2331a84fdfdfba7120dc53617749ba4b73735
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cirsteaof Andreeva, Cirstea
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcea6…5ce3backed Andreeva | 46c | 4,145$1,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.82 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Andreeva | 10c | 2,270$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.78 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Andreeva | 48c | 1,211$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.28 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed Andreeva | 5c | 1,132$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c7…bf04backed Cirstea | 77c | 1,058$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.95 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked Andreeva | 49c | 886.16$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.29 | 255 | 44.7%114 W · 141 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8b57backed Cirstea | 51c | 700$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cirstea | 52c | 686.61$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.49 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Andreeva | 30c | 526.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.56 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Andreeva | 43c | 515.61$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.77 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Andreeva | 48c | 508.16$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.91 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Cirstea | 55c | 461.38$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.94 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Andreeva | 49c | 392.74$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.93 | 434 | 49.1%213 W · 221 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cirstea | 53c | 373.23$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.09 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…4954backed Cirstea | 57c | 342.27$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.45 | 105 | 70.5%74 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Cirstea | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 216 | 55.6%120 W · 96 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Andreeva | 46c | 294.52$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.02 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8b…2858backed Andreeva | 45c | 229.72$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd85a…1d03backed Cirstea | 58c | 203.12$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 105 | 71.4%75 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Andreeva | 37c | 193.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…d02cbacked Andreeva | 60c | 175.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…4533backed Andreeva | 36c | 125.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb804…cd66backed Andreeva | 37c | 96.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 154 | 16.2%25 W · 129 L | -12.1wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10f9…5a03backed Andreeva | 22c | 86.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Cirstea | 42c | 56.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0185…3735backed Andreeva | 33c | 43.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cirstea | 39c | 37.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Cirstea | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked Cirstea | 49c | 31.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Andreeva | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Cirstea | 60c | 30.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Andreeva | 49c | 27.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Andreeva | 49c | 25.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Cirstea (+1.5)this page
- Mirra Andreeva vs. Sorana Cirstea: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Andreeva vs CirsteaAndreeva won
- Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana CirsteaMirra Andreeva won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.