MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4644f5be151acaf26bdc4b5bba055b02bcf487a594088675de7b3b7695799230
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 2,403$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.14 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 1,917$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.16 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Minnesota Twins | 14c | 1,875$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.84 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 915.38$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.38 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 714$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.72 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Minnesota Twins | 24c | 339.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…726cbacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Minnesota Twins | 47c | 75.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9613…2d9fbacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 41.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 22.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.