La Liga · resolved market
CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46699f8edd50a7ceccc3afa29c1e116b391c9577a1d68d74713aa18f950d09f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 2,718$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.9 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 45c | 1,400$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.99 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 34c | 896.18$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.52 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 475.02$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.84 | 1,421 | 45.7%649 W · 772 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 25c | 250$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 38c | 237.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.53 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 27c | 237.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.9 | 1,045 | 47.8%500 W · 545 L | +15.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed Under | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 62c | 193.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 67c | 170.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 96 | 11.5%11 W · 85 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 190 | 42.1%80 W · 110 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 52c | 102$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 39c | 101.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…293ebacked Under | 35c | 86.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Over | 50c | 82.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 56c | 35.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +32.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 65c | 35.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 59c | 30.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 163 | 63.8%104 W · 59 L | +32.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 176 | 63.1%111 W · 65 L | +32.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Over | 46c | 28.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5this page
- CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CD Leganés (-1.5)CD Leganés won
- Spread: CD Leganés (-2.5)CD Leganés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.