La Liga · resolved market
CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb629b73cd46ef97dd29641e372a11263511d4e83d916394017cd0bdb18e3b9aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,058 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Under | 55c | 18,106$9,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,928.34 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 8,239$3,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250.04 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 3,903$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,116.91 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Over | 45c | 2,652$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.6 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 31c | 1,695$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.17 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 66c | 1,400$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.86 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 45c | 1,396$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.71 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 1,156$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.06 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 67c | 836.78$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.73 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 56c | 507.75$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.34 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Over | 44c | 441$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed Over | 45c | 281.8$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under | 55c | 227.36$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…79f8backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 65c | 125.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 66c | 113.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 188 | 42%79 W · 109 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 45c | 102.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 44c | 98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 45c | 97.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Over | 65c | 86.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 45c | 71.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Over | 45c | 64.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Over | 45c | 64.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 45c | 64.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 60c | 63.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 33c | 55.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 77c | 50.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 45c | 37.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfad…af3fbacked Over | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 45c | 22.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 58c | 21.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 187 | 47.1%88 W · 99 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 57c | 20.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5this page
- CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CD Leganés (-1.5)CD Leganés won
- Spread: CD Leganés (-2.5)CD Leganés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.