Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x468b79c1394cc3a7866b3e36d18c743a375587c3073396b3c133c35332663469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 32c | 829.68$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.21 | 520 | 46.9%244 W · 276 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 499.97$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 66c | 263.28$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 71c | 227.19$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 209.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed Yes | 34c | 193.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 67c | 159.22$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 66c | 156.87$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 35c | 140.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 38c | 132.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 11c | 119.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 114.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 15c | 114.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 105.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 99.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 75.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…dd14backed No | 68c | 66.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…d665backed No | 67c | 57.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 19c | 56.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 30c | 49.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 67c | 49.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 38c | 44.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 43.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 30c | 40.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 35c | 39.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 37.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 68c | 37.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 49c | 36.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 36.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 353 | 69.4%245 W · 108 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f9…7764backed Yes | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed No | 66c | 18.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 73c | 15.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 15.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.