Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cf076f9823a4bee8267b299bf027c49a8423fe2182dd806c31c5a54647aa68e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 611.25$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 17c | 490.65$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 234.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 60c | 136.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 132.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…2496backed Yes | 29c | 119.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 16c | 116.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 22c | 110.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 19c | 105.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed Yes | 10c | 102.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 93.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 80.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 19c | 78.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 18c | 66.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 22c | 61.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 61.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 43c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…65ddbacked Yes | 36c | 35.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 30c | 34.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 39c | 29.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 45c | 29.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 42c | 26.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 61c | 25.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 59c | 23.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 64c | 21.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 62c | 17.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 76c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.