Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23317f0867e83fd5ed4b68f0db13291102d2846ba3b2a42a7e6b500eab6bc383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 5c | 810.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 6c | 802.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 9c | 592.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 3c | 555.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed Yes | 4c | 477.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 37c | 470.14$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.08 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 62c | 449.75$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.5 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 8c | 383.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed Yes | 10c | 320.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 50c | 291.15$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.27 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…777cbacked Yes | 9c | 285.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +199.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 13c | 273.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd707…7d7abacked Yes | 6c | 247.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked Yes | 8c | 232$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 7c | 223.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 174.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed Yes | 10c | 167.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 63c | 154.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 36c | 150.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 18c | 148.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 58c | 147.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce4…5385backed No | 80c | 143.77$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 112.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 107.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a07…3a75backed Yes | 12c | 103.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 99.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 99.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 27c | 97.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 17c | 75.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 39c | 71.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed Yes | 18c | 56.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 36c | 39.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 53c | 37.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 48c | 30.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…d665backed No | 63c | 30.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 70c | 22.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…4742backed No | 75c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.