Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4699ab7cde1617cbb877fe42614f3ade74bfd1c30eaee547d55608eccf9ab2f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1512…079bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,029$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 1c | 1,287$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 575.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 16c | 426.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 318.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 13c | 226.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 8c | 202.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbc…3f10backed Yes | 8c | 179.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…1ab8backed Yes | 11c | 155.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 11c | 133.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 85.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 24c | 65.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 67c | 56.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…d015backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 25c | 43.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…4409backed Yes | 29c | 42.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 42.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 28c | 42.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 77c | 39.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 69c | 35.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 27.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 70c | 19.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 74c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.