Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe05399a0ebe77d86660b7aee926a403d5ee45cabb6b04cbeaf5daf8c4450f32f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 21c | 361.23$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 3c | 308.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 263.8$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 37c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 37c | 190.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 185.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 43c | 123.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 116$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 109.46$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 78c | 93.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 31c | 90.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 37c | 79.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…0de3backed No | 73c | 79.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 73.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 43c | 57.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 56.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 39c | 56.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 56.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 52.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed No | 62c | 43.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 45c | 43.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 42.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 41.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 34.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 65c | 33.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 67c | 33.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 33c | 31.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 73c | 31.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 30.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 58c | 29.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 24.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 60c | 21.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 20.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 17.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…aadbbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.