Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa93ff7f9512148ea7c4a5a546355a63e6f226354343e4549b61f966dcc21713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 501.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 44c | 273.6$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.97 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 38c | 273.4$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.36 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 19c | 265.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 263.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 11c | 234.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.85 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 31c | 166.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.51 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 165.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 57c | 153.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 17c | 138.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 133.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 26c | 125.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 42c | 125.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 46c | 116.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 68c | 113.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 109.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 9c | 108.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 15c | 107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 71c | 106.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 103.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 22c | 90.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked No | 72c | 81.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 47c | 76.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 75.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 73.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 28c | 72.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…f7b2backed Yes | 28c | 66.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +209.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 31c | 63.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 60.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 59.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 27c | 59.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 56.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 56.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 42c | 55.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 66c | 54.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 65c | 47.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 48c | 47.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 33c | 44.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 57c | 43.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 60c | 41.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 41.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 50c | 34.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 61c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 52c | 33.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 70c | 32.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 58c | 30.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 42c | 28.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 45c | 28.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 26.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 25.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 25.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d9…ee1ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 60c | 24.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 22.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 18.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 18.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 18.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 74c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.