Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Revenant XSpark vs Asterisk (BO3) - VCL South Asia: Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46a556f1de3bb7b894dc2f4e5e889fd865c1e3f235dadc0bac9a979d1581e043
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Asteriskof Revenant XSpark, Asterisk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,321 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b37…1f70backed Revenant XSpark | 67c | 3,490$2,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.65 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Asterisk | 36c | 1,481$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.55 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Revenant XSpark | 42c | 1,104$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.23 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Asterisk | 38c | 1,077$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.54 | 101 | 59.4%60 W · 41 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…0b75backed Asterisk | 71c | 848.45$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.67 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Asterisk | 33c | 750$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.5 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Asterisk | 33c | 726.88$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.01 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Revenant XSpark | 68c | 723.97$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.27 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Asterisk | 33c | 668.63$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.26 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Revenant XSpark | 31c | 450.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Asterisk | 32c | 391.21$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.7 | 173 | 53.8%93 W · 80 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Asterisk | 33c | 387.58$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.68 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed Revenant XSpark | 42c | 375$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7612…b680backed Asterisk | 33c | 325$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Asterisk | 31c | 303.39$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.91 | 170 | 39.4%67 W · 103 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Revenant XSpark | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Asterisk | 58c | 290.85$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.17 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…bbcebacked Asterisk | 33c | 242.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…ec03backed Asterisk | 44c | 227.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked Asterisk | 69c | 217.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Asterisk | 35c | 200.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.29 | 312 | 32.7%102 W · 210 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Revenant XSpark | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Revenant XSpark | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Asterisk | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…0e1fbacked Asterisk | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Revenant XSpark | 61c | 164.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Asterisk | 40c | 145.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.81 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Asterisk | 33c | 145.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Revenant XSpark | 68c | 144$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Asterisk | 31c | 130.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…987ebacked Asterisk | 33c | 120.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Asterisk | 33c | 114.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Asterisk | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8548…e4c1backed Asterisk | 80c | 92.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +484.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Revenant XSpark | 66c | 77.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Revenant XSpark | 60c | 73.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 601 | 54.2%326 W · 275 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbe…f82cbacked Revenant XSpark | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Asterisk | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Revenant XSpark | 35c | 46.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 274 | 11.3%31 W · 243 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Asterisk | 55c | 46.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b2bdbacked Asterisk | 33c | 40.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Asterisk | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked Asterisk | 41c | 30.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Asterisk | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 575 | 17.7%102 W · 473 L | -71.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…3533backed Asterisk | 68c | 29.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ba30backed Revenant XSpark | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a18…d98cbacked Asterisk | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Asterisk | 54c | 20.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 207 | 55.6%115 W · 92 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.