CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Alliance (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x470fbdd5344d49c3e88b5d44d81aa732c8633e08f4094fa25bb8f99b60e797de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Alliance
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked PARIVISION | 42c | 6,589$2,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,819.42 | 5,028 | 55%2,763 W · 2,265 L | +112.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Alliance | 58c | 5,076$2,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,943.81 | 1,476 | 51.8%765 W · 711 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed PARIVISION | 43c | 930.21$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.22 | 590 | 55.3%326 W · 264 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…aedebacked Alliance | 58c | 870$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.6 | 191 | 56.5%108 W · 83 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Alliance | 58c | 751.38$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.8 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Alliance | 57c | 453.19$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.32 | 521 | 50.3%262 W · 259 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Alliance | 57c | 365.09$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.1 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed PARIVISION | 43c | 308.02$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.62 | 1,998 | 53.7%1,073 W · 925 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Alliance | 56c | 303.57$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 357 | 45.4%162 W · 195 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed PARIVISION | 44c | 303.57$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Alliance | 56c | 211.28$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…719dbacked Alliance | 57c | 206$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed PARIVISION | 42c | 203.22$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 192 | 47.9%92 W · 100 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a13…4d34backed PARIVISION | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Alliance | 56c | 184.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked Alliance | 57c | 174.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 391 | 57.5%225 W · 166 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION | 59c | 126.95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 352 | 42.9%151 W · 201 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Alliance | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 40.7%46 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed PARIVISION | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…b135backed PARIVISION | 43c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 138 | 35.5%49 W · 89 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24c…3f33backed PARIVISION | 49c | 102.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed PARIVISION | 42c | 101.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 317 | 31.9%101 W · 216 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Alliance | 58c | 96.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 107 | 65.4%70 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…3c43backed Alliance | 57c | 93.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…b713backed PARIVISION | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Alliance | 49c | 51.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 690 | 41.9%289 W · 401 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…8567backed Alliance | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…9176backed Alliance | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f97…80eebacked PARIVISION | 52c | 47.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Alliance | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Alliance | 48c | 26.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 328 | 40.2%132 W · 196 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Alliance | 52c | 20.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Alliance (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Alliance (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group StagePARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.