TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Alliance (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Alliance
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$558,888
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$670,461

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $558,888 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 507 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed PARIVISION61c148,614$91,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,459.512348.8%60 W · 63 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x666d…5795backed Alliance36c35,690$12,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,753.28560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+40.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf81…6e25backed Alliance38c34,413$13,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,078.771010%1 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick37cpaid+32.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe183…62e6backed Alliance38c20,000$7,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,6302951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Alliance39c19,354$7,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,548.1314145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Alliance38c14,945$5,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,672.055,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked Alliance24c14,757$3,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,501.738258.5%48 W · 34 L+9.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+28.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked PARIVISION62c12,825$7,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,873.6222354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed PARIVISION62c11,694$7,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,443.8633343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Alliance39c10,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90050054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Alliance37c9,178$3,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,395.7275652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed PARIVISION79c8,534$6,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,781.351,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Alliance37c7,874$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,938.7166851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Alliance38c7,777$2,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,955.2667041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed PARIVISION60c7,720$4,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,088.1720354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d67…ab42backed Alliance38c7,562$2,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,873.691266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Alliance38c6,303$2,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,395.0584958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x58a2…c1c2backed PARIVISION57c5,467$3,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,333.975151%26 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked PARIVISION62c5,329$3,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.192456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed Alliance38c5,147$1,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.79550.5%48 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7342…1db7backed Alliance38c5,003$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,901.141637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked PARIVISION74c4,789$3,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.3163157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed Alliance10c4,722$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.2419057.9%110 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Alliance39c4,156$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62121545.6%98 W · 117 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed PARIVISION63c4,151$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.7448350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed PARIVISION62c4,010$2,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.8726952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Alliance38c4,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52023848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed PARIVISION62c4,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,52029449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Alliance39c3,640$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.4276058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc9de…c026backed Alliance39c3,587$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.411546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed Alliance40c3,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4004542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Alliance39c3,316$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.2210850%54 W · 54 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked PARIVISION61c3,101$1,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.455,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f0…971ebacked Alliance38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14031647.8%151 W · 165 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked PARIVISION78c2,865$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.5544957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked PARIVISION62c2,788$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.4638358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20b8…0b16backed Alliance33c2,711$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.27per pick39cpaid-71.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked Alliance37c2,701$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.335251.9%27 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a90…7e68backed PARIVISION62c2,680$1,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.42958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd044…a6febacked PARIVISION62c2,508$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.041030%3 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-43.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Alliance38c2,500$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.981,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed Alliance39c2,471$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.366144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed Alliance38c2,460$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.775836.2%21 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed PARIVISION62c2,426$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.0146243.3%200 W · 262 L+1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfed…9d03backed Alliance35c2,389$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.691631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Alliance3c2,355$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.857617.1%13 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Alliance36c2,334$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.9445646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Alliance22c2,327$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.3240137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b0f…3476backed Alliance24c2,084$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.053713.5%5 W · 32 L-7.5wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-64%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Alliance1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Alliance39c1,795$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70075245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ccf…c116backed Alliance39c1,664$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.817732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8a…76a2backed Alliance39c1,595$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6222437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…19bebacked PARIVISION62c1,572$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2af9…fb3abacked PARIVISION74c1,556$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4091100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Alliance37c1,545$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.8838841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed PARIVISION62c1,538$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.7328455.6%158 W · 126 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed PARIVISION63c1,514$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.4832346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed PARIVISION62c1,500$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57018846.3%87 W · 101 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Alliance15c1,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22532136.8%118 W · 203 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Alliance35c1,482$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.22,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked PARIVISION72c1,434$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.82,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ae…e127backed PARIVISION62c1,434$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.961090%9 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick63cpaid+45.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Alliance39c1,391$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.5312451.6%64 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Alliance33c1,372$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.151,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2972…3f29backed Alliance39c1,262$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Alliance32c1,245$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40024038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed PARIVISION70c1,244$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.174,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Alliance20c1,230$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.932548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86bf…a172backed Alliance56c1,214$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.163836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Alliance39c1,200$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.9925145.8%115 W · 136 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Alliance31c1,177$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.0622241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Alliance49c1,142$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.0841040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Alliance20c1,112$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.982,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Alliance30c1,110$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.582,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed Alliance38c1,077$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.1619340.4%78 W · 115 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed PARIVISION51c1,060$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52435953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked PARIVISION63c1,047$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.22,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed PARIVISION57c1,019$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.421346.9%100 W · 113 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8731…2c12backed Alliance39c1,013$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.111020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked PARIVISION62c1,006$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.5122751.5%117 W · 110 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa851…4dedbacked Alliance38c1,005$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3812748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc15…78e4backed Alliance39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick57cpaid-79.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked PARIVISION72c1,000$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.52,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Alliance1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1069624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Alliance2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0978…0d99backed Alliance38c999.96$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.9910441.3%43 W · 61 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Alliance32c999.62$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.668542.4%36 W · 49 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed PARIVISION78c983.95$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.162,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked PARIVISION61c983.61$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.614546.7%21 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed PARIVISION61c982.33$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.3396545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5045…914abacked Alliance37c966$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.9510644.3%47 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed PARIVISION63c954.94$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.9414839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Alliance37c935.72$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.5696543.5%420 W · 545 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked PARIVISION73c902.92$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.613,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed PARIVISION63c875.6$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.6113732.1%44 W · 93 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Alliance30c865.03$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.4863038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION74c844.22$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.926,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed PARIVISION63c838.91$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.9114362.9%90 W · 53 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed PARIVISION62c838.71$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.7119245.8%88 W · 104 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.