Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic - Game 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47476a41daf3fc71aa47a32a5e911b344d4c34a3c8f8241b9bd3bb0590516e77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Perú Rejectsof Perú Rejects, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Heroic | 65c | 3,993$2,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,594.42 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Perú Rejects | 27c | 2,104$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.23 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 70c | 2,068$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.79 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Perú Rejects | 30c | 1,885$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.65 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…c6a8backed Perú Rejects | 41c | 1,022$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.58 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Perú Rejects | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.99 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…f441backed Perú Rejects | 47c | 793.64$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Perú Rejects | 41c | 596.44$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.8 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Perú Rejects | 42c | 530$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.4 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd3…0591backed Heroic | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Heroic | 61c | 299.98$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.99 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Heroic | 17c | 211.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Perú Rejects | 31c | 168.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.81 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00f…0f52backed Perú Rejects | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Heroic | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Heroic | 45c | 88.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…8b61backed Heroic | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8478…4355backed Perú Rejects | 35c | 63.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Perú Rejects | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Heroic | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Heroic | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Heroic | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Heroic | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic - Game 3 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic (BO5)Perú Rejects won
- Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerPerú Rejects won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.