NFL · resolved market
Colts vs. Broncos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4767200a3408052dbd2a28f00b4eab336eb8fab551093529d7314e9d4604a3f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Colts, Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Broncos | 46c | 7,786$3,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,208.25 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Colts | 54c | 2,757$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.45 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Broncos | 68c | 2,179$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.92 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Colts | 11c | 2,000$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Colts | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…677fbacked Colts | 46c | 1,800$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Colts | 10c | 1,197$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.33 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Broncos | 77c | 1,171$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.09 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Colts | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Colts | 55c | 900$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…8802backed Broncos | 45c | 552.67$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…a5afbacked Broncos | 67c | 515$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Colts | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…c772backed Colts | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Colts | 55c | 239.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.9 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Broncos | 47c | 222$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Broncos | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a50…8fc2backed Broncos | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27e8…0693backed Colts | 57c | 175.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…304cbacked Colts | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Colts | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb276…d4debacked Colts | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde35…4bc8backed Colts | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Colts | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1396…b149backed Colts | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Colts | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed Colts | 54c | 41.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa764…31edbacked Broncos | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…030bbacked Broncos | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…1605backed Colts | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.