Tennis · resolved market
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47ad782003d7587d6580d75a6bdf559f624ff6d4628e7bedd9032a19a0b4b87e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Alcaraz | 71c | 4,227$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.72 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Alcaraz | 73c | 2,500$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Musetti | 29c | 2,308$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.71 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Musetti | 27c | 2,279$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.43 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Musetti | 29c | 1,928$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.27 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Musetti | 27c | 1,308$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.14 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…26ecbacked Musetti | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Musetti | 31c | 975.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa346…738fbacked Musetti | 25c | 781.74$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Alcaraz | 73c | 680.83$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.98 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Musetti | 24c | 680$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.17 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Alcaraz | 74c | 593.87$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.13 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf7…ee71backed Musetti | 29c | 563.14$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Alcaraz | 75c | 552.25$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.06 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Musetti | 21c | 465.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Alcaraz | 73c | 398.24$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.43 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…4619backed Alcaraz | 72c | 347.35$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Musetti | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Musetti | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Alcaraz | 79c | 322.09$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed Musetti | 30c | 199.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…0bc4backed Musetti | 10c | 173.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…6ce4backed Alcaraz | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…e56bbacked Alcaraz | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…7c5abacked Musetti | 28c | 118.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Musetti | 12c | 115.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Musetti | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Alcaraz | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Alcaraz | 72c | 69.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…dee6backed Alcaraz | 72c | 57.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Alcaraz | 73c | 38.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked Alcaraz | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.