NFL · resolved market
Will Christian McCaffrey win 2024 Super Bowl MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47fdc56b5aca5b39fa82ae3ea795f2606776d7c02221e757d936b695ae478d0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a0f…4cbdbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 74c | 522.67$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.8 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 18c | 442$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 17c | 366.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cba…db51backed Yes | 28c | 362.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Yes | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c99…3477backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…79f7backed Yes | 18c | 194.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…09ebbacked Yes | 18c | 183.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45c…e3a0backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…4124backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafec…a82bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Christian McCaffrey win 2024 Super Bowl MVP?this page
- Will Brock Purdy win 2024 Super Bowl MVP?No won
- Will Patrick Mahomes win 2024 Super Bowl MVP?Yes won
- Will Travis Kelce win 2024 Super Bowl MVP?No won
- Will another player win 2024 Super Bowl MVP for the 2023-24 NFL season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.