NHL · resolved market
AHL: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins vs. Toronto Marlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x482be1da97822b0fc081cd92df928738f179d96b5c468b7b6bf001fa4d457065
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguinsof Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, Toronto Marlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 57c | 191.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Toronto Marlies | 73c | 181.49$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.22 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 63c | 158.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 151 | 57.6%87 W · 64 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Marlies | 61c | 115.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Toronto Marlies | 38c | 113.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 28c | 111$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Toronto Marlies | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 58c | 74.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Toronto Marlies | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Toronto Marlies | 67c | 48.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Marlies | 54c | 37.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef2…fdb6backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Toronto Marlies | 46c | 23.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Toronto Marlies | 62c | 23.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 56c | 18.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.