Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Most Wanted - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x484d081f8b895aea409c8412c4904f750c24ec43e1090975582642d85da7f4c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof AVULUS, Most Wanted
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed AVULUS | 49c | 1,224$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.03 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Most Wanted | 51c | 554.25$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.67 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed AVULUS | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed Most Wanted | 23c | 443.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Most Wanted | 52c | 360.45$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.1 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Most Wanted | 51c | 225.49$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed AVULUS | 52c | 212.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed AVULUS | 50c | 209.06$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Most Wanted | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked AVULUS | 47c | 117.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Most Wanted | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Most Wanted | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7953…ed24backed AVULUS | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 29cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Most Wanted | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Most Wanted | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Most Wanted | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…ae82backed AVULUS | 46c | 43.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed AVULUS | 33c | 42.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…d8b7backed AVULUS | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Most Wanted | 43c | 35.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed AVULUS | 69c | 33.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf987…6ea7backed AVULUS | 47c | 29.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Most Wanted | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Most Wanted - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Most Wanted (BO3)AVULUS won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Most Wanted - Game 1 WinnerAVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.