Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Most Wanted (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x006ca454f3220653b03ab90deb9a50de08b64570cb66ebe30db9e415a7543f60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof AVULUS, Most Wanted
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f47…d0a3backed Most Wanted | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Most Wanted | 68c | 1,607$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.84 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked AVULUS | 31c | 1,319$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.98 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS | 31c | 999.94$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.12 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed AVULUS | 71c | 779.33$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.66 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Most Wanted | 68c | 777$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Most Wanted | 4c | 684.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed Most Wanted | 2c | 679.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Most Wanted | 70c | 521.4$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.68 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Most Wanted | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked AVULUS | 71c | 498.71$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.59 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Most Wanted | 40c | 374.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.44 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…33bdbacked AVULUS | 75c | 356.9$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Most Wanted | 43c | 234.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed AVULUS | 34c | 226.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.78 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc33…633ebacked AVULUS | 40c | 211$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed AVULUS | 38c | 184.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.04 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Most Wanted | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5f…7fbfbacked Most Wanted | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Most Wanted | 39c | 141.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Most Wanted | 8c | 139.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed AVULUS | 33c | 136.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…ed0dbacked Most Wanted | 39c | 135.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked AVULUS | 64c | 135.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Most Wanted | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Most Wanted | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Most Wanted | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…87aabacked AVULUS | 65c | 86.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Most Wanted | 58c | 86.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Most Wanted | 60c | 81.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8ad8backed AVULUS | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…8dcfbacked Most Wanted | 60c | 78.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed AVULUS | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f7…919bbacked AVULUS | 65c | 69.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Most Wanted | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864d…f1e2backed AVULUS | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…7fdcbacked Most Wanted | 78c | 63.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e4…4113backed Most Wanted | 65c | 61.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Most Wanted | 26c | 59.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed AVULUS | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…b8e6backed AVULUS | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…c6dabacked Most Wanted | 61c | 39.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be9…40cbbacked AVULUS | 57c | 35.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…4c1dbacked Most Wanted | 71c | 35.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Most Wanted | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…0bd2backed AVULUS | 78c | 33.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1384…12acbacked Most Wanted | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf987…6ea7backed Most Wanted | 46c | 26.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639c…7cf4backed AVULUS | 58c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Most Wanted | 66c | 25.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked AVULUS | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Most Wanted | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…6df7backed Most Wanted | 67c | 17.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Most Wanted (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Most Wanted - Game 1 WinnerAVULUS won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Most Wanted - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.