MLB · resolved market
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Doosan Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48aed45e815eeccdd629541afc518ee0272f183841d6cda38f037e366dcd91a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Doosan Bearsof Samsung Lions, Doosan Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98e1…3241backed Samsung Lions | 47c | 953.02$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Samsung Lions | 13c | 551.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Doosan Bears | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Doosan Bears | 75c | 287.92$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 300 | 40.7%122 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Doosan Bears | 55c | 253.9$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…12bdbacked Samsung Lions | 46c | 251.51$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.71 | 212 | 48.1%102 W · 110 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Doosan Bears | 52c | 198.35$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.21 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Doosan Bears | 58c | 179.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Samsung Lions | 45c | 153.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Doosan Bears | 53c | 144.31$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Doosan Bears | 53c | 141.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2465…5d84backed Doosan Bears | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1,099 | 79.7%876 W · 223 L | +33.4wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d6…5c3abacked Doosan Bears | 54c | 103.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Samsung Lions | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Samsung Lions | 24c | 77.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Samsung Lions | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Doosan Bears | 75c | 76.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…9ec4backed Samsung Lions | 51c | 68.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Doosan Bears | 57c | 68.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Samsung Lions | 45c | 56.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Samsung Lions | 45c | 55.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 589 | 38.9%229 W · 360 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Doosan Bears | 54c | 53.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Doosan Bears | 63c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 624 | 54.2%338 W · 286 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Doosan Bears | 52c | 48.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98a…edffbacked Samsung Lions | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Doosan Bears | 56c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Samsung Lions | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Doosan Bears | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Samsung Lions | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Doosan Bears | 54c | 39.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Doosan Bears | 56c | 37.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…cdedbacked Doosan Bears | 52c | 34.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Doosan Bears | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Samsung Lions | 47c | 29.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…bde7backed Doosan Bears | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Doosan Bears | 50c | 22.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 266 | 42.1%112 W · 154 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.