Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48b32e00e05f3a5667e4427a33f61ed26a6614840e9cd4332f589b18ff2c3044
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof Team Lynx, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Team Lynx | 43c | 1,082$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.13 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ea…bbb3backed VP.Prodigy | 62c | 972.05$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed VP.Prodigy | 60c | 671.69$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.62 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Team Lynx | 31c | 265.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed VP.Prodigy | 69c | 265.46$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…de0fbacked Team Lynx | 32c | 176.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VP.Prodigy | 29c | 110.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed Team Lynx | 31c | 59.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…d8cebacked VP.Prodigy | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed Team Lynx | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Team Lynx | 69c | 18.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Team Lynx | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group AVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.