Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48d1e0e061765e547b1a4eef440af037b71d260268da21b4c492724e2db81e2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 485.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 61c | 232.28$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 743 | 23.3%173 W · 570 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 161.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 35c | 85.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 71.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 67.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 60.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6172…f63fbacked Yes | 47c | 53.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 39c | 50.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 36c | 49.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 222 | 38.7%86 W · 136 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 48.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 550 | 26.9%148 W · 402 L | -66.5wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 43c | 36.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 51c | 35.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 61c | 30.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 46c | 26.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 44c | 24.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 277 | 50.2%139 W · 138 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 22.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.