TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 27?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,791
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,444

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,791 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes39c135.73$53 inWon+$83.1420851.9%108 W · 100 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes35c100$35 inWon+$65.269736.1%35 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No67c98.24$66 inLost-$65.6818947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes22c97.4$21 inWon+$76.1955942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes35c92.75$32 inWon+$60.415,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c89.7$59 inLost-$59.116,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c80$57 inLost-$56.72,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes65c79.27$52 inWon+$27.4957654.3%313 W · 263 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No62c75$47 inLost-$46.555,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No47c64.06$30 inLost-$30.0274323.3%173 W · 570 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No75c55.4$41 inLost-$41.2941274.8%308 W · 104 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes29c55.34$16 inWon+$39.2953548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No68c54.93$37 inLost-$37.234,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes35c51.55$18 inWon+$33.553,64953.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L+83.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No61c46.3$28 inLost-$28.161,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c39$26 inLost-$25.745,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes64c37.05$24 inWon+$13.2925642.2%108 W · 148 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c35.34$24 inLost-$23.659,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea25…0447backed Yes49c29.41$14 inWon+$15.0314839.9%59 W · 89 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62e2…1f89backed No71c26.83$19 inLost-$1910266.7%68 W · 34 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e5e…35c9backed No67c24.95$17 inLost-$16.7219750.8%100 W · 97 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-14.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x033e…76aebacked Yes67c21.31$14 inWon+$7.134766%31 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No59c20.41$12 inLost-$12.112,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x4186…d8a0backed No68c20.02$14 inLost-$13.61862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c9…b92fbacked No64c18.45$12 inLost-$11.765942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.