Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48d50b4903e7c901aaff93560d0340916657f7e6a7ca83b94d9f0f076641e496
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 4c | 613.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed Yes | 27c | 341.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 294.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 42c | 224.76$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df9…9708backed Yes | 26c | 176.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 146.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 134.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 126.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 106.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 101.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 69c | 90.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 85.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 84.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 70c | 82.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…2e92backed Yes | 34c | 82.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 77.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 24c | 75.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 33c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 35c | 72.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 22c | 69.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 16c | 68.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 66.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 56.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked Yes | 37c | 48.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed Yes | 28c | 46.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 42.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 25c | 42.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 35c | 41.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 67c | 35.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 72c | 33.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 32c | 33.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 31.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 79c | 29.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 75c | 29.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 36c | 28.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…c490backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 76c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 19.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 80c | 19.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 76c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 70c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 77c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or below on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.