Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66ab0f846d9a9e35d08a9260476cf210a3140e0a8d1e4da96aa5c6d49d37d1e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20ab…9c0ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,178$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 431.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 67c | 227.2$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked No | 68c | 215.02$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 35c | 214.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 191.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 27c | 173.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 72c | 146.64$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 44c | 145.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 56c | 145.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 144.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df9…9708backed No | 49c | 143.94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 135.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 66c | 134.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 24c | 131.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 70c | 125.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 109.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed No | 68c | 108.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 40c | 105.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 101.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 42c | 90.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 89.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 31c | 76.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 59c | 76.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 39c | 74.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 47c | 68.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 62.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 72c | 60.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc55c…60f1backed Yes | 39c | 59.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 20c | 58.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 54.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 53.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 53.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…f1b3backed Yes | 65c | 52.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 31c | 50.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 57c | 49.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 21c | 49.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 45.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 54c | 43.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 42c | 41.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 71c | 41.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 47c | 41.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 29c | 41.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 30c | 41.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…7530backed No | 76c | 38.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…858bbacked Yes | 31c | 38.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 44c | 38.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…3b88backed No | 76c | 38.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 51c | 37.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed No | 49c | 34.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 33c | 31.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 45c | 31.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 31.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…befabacked Yes | 64c | 30.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…c067backed Yes | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 59cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…4bc5backed No | 66c | 27.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67d4…80bfbacked Yes | 39c | 27.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 73c | 27.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 43c | 26.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 23.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6d…d234backed No | 63c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed No | 51c | 21.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…e87fbacked No | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bde…688fbacked No | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 18.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 72c | 18.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 70c | 14.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or below on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.