Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbb56488920cb3630cbe940f55b95e50dd48b92c6a67c263e730d3dff02feca8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 729.28$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 505.44$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 12c | 476.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 361.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 315.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 9c | 260.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.05 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 34c | 253.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 47c | 251.67$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.45 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 10c | 218.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.38 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 182.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.18 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 28c | 166.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.46 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 16c | 148.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 23c | 145.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.15 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 32c | 141.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 130.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 10c | 119.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.84 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 115.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 19c | 107.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 18c | 101.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…7723backed Yes | 59c | 98.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 13c | 92.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 21c | 91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 66c | 89.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d2…590ebacked No | 21c | 77.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 21c | 67.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…9a6dbacked Yes | 51c | 67.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 60.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 52c | 59.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 39c | 57.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 32c | 56.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 58c | 45.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 37.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed Yes | 59c | 34.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 31c | 32.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…f1b3backed Yes | 58c | 31.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed No | 49c | 30.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 53c | 29.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…4bc5backed Yes | 72c | 29.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 62c | 27.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c89…1c52backed Yes | 78c | 25.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 61c | 22.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 62c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…71a0backed Yes | 62c | 19.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5812…8c24backed Yes | 76c | 17.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…b6bebacked No | 62c | 16.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 72c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or below on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.