NFL · resolved market
Will the Cowboys and Giants combine for 45 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48fa6ae189700e61a41a2cd7117db2a24e991914c84d0ec49d79a5acee1b01fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Under | 47c | 2,974$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.3 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Over | 53c | 1,894$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 53c | 1,504$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Under | 48c | 629.99$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.9 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Over | 51c | 529.69$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.14 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Over | 50c | 528$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…3ababacked Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…36b3backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…27e7backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaee9…353abacked Over | 53c | 176.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 49c | 164.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Under | 10c | 118.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.02 | 118 | 21.2%25 W · 93 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1976…3bc6backed Under | 50c | 118$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…d62ebacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…e4b8backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9b…40b8backed Over | 52c | 52.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…b1cfbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e21…4d75backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…c994backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 195 | 64.6%126 W · 69 L | +12.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked Under | 49c | 26.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97db…d654backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Cowboys and Giants combine for 45 or more points?this page
- Will the Cowboys beat the Giants by 6 or more points?Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.