AI · resolved market
Will Brian Armstrong say "Base Token" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x490147e64bb2bee868a1f1cf3c830ac935f45580b6d4db7b64214e2047eb106d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1a4…e9adbacked No | 72c | 305.57$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 11c | 175.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 32c | 138.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c5…626dbacked Yes | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 85.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked No | 60c | 49.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…81f6backed Yes | 34c | 43.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a52…a88ebacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 57c | 37.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…f92cbacked Yes | 56c | 35.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…3ad8backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…a108backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…2381backed No | 54c | 30.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…9c6dbacked No | 72c | 27.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +310%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…d82cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brian Armstrong say "Base Token" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?this page
- Will Brian Armstrong say "Bitcoin" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?Yes won
- Will Brian Armstrong say "Cobie" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?No won
- Will Brian Armstrong say "Echo" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?No won
- Will Brian Armstrong say "Ethereum" 2+ times at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?Yes won
- Will Brian Armstrong say "Perpetual Futures" or "Perp" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?No won
- Will Brian Armstrong say "Prediction Market" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?Yes won
- Will Brian Armstrong say "Solana" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?No won
- Will Brian Armstrong say "Stablecoin" 2+ times at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?Yes won
- Will Brian Armstrong say "Token Sale" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?Yes won
- Will Brian Armstrong say "Tokenized Equity" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.