Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49307bb04c35e9a94f0d5b9f1d052ae96faf927e97d74f6466471c39205e811e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,592 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x360f…e6e1backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 15c | 972.53$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.37 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 3c | 961.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 12c | 647.66$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…1b0cbacked No | 6c | 568.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 40c | 544.7$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.84 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 77c | 410$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 352.37$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36a…d11fbacked No | 5c | 300.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 11c | 298.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.96 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 18c | 279.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.27 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 79c | 273.93$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 13c | 196.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 20c | 195.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.69 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 173$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.6 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 15c | 155.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.78 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 14c | 150.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.62 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 63c | 149.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 145.91$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 54c | 130.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 80c | 127.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 17c | 119.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 80c | 105$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.91 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 67c | 104.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 102.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…fe5cbacked Yes | 14c | 100.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 20c | 74.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 63c | 72.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 57c | 66.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 46c | 62.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…c8a9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed Yes | 27c | 47.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 46.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 73c | 46.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 80c | 37.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 34.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4c…fa01backed Yes | 60c | 33.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 37c | 30.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 64c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 58c | 29.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…a764backed Yes | 67c | 23.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…7003backed Yes | 77c | 20.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…f7d2backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…251dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…0c8abacked Yes | 61c | 18.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…be07backed No | 72c | 14.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 73c | 14.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.