Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19ff90babbeb82bd4c4ba02957adc531cdf2689862084ec6dfcd6ab6839bbd21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,292 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x360f…e6e1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 32c | 631.49$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.88 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 14c | 405.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 11c | 327.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 218.59$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 26c | 212.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 34c | 199.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 196.14$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ea64backed Yes | 38c | 189.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 18c | 187.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 30c | 181.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 70c | 170$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 165.17$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 160.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 145.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 141.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 24c | 135.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 115.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 25c | 104.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 26c | 103.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…fe5cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 95.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…7003backed Yes | 40c | 93.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 49c | 92.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 90.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 25c | 78.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 27c | 75.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 58c | 73.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 67.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 66.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 64c | 49.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 28c | 48.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 38c | 39.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 36.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed Yes | 30c | 36.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf45a…854bbacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 20.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 17.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.