Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4938559e31d29c60b4a13c74538a1bb28f3d18bea575d853558c5d26e0d5f96c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd02…5e41backed No | 0c | 24,995$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 2c | 1,257$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 3c | 484.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.43 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 25c | 368.96$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.87 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 53c | 192.08$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f8…7483backed Yes | 9c | 126.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +188.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 50c | 112.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 55c | 82.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 69c | 46.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe576…1111backed No | 30c | 41.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 80c | 36.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 74c | 32.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed No | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…b6bebacked No | 68c | 21.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b3…532cbacked No | 63c | 18.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 69c | 18.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 58c | 18.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 22?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on April 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.