Tennis · resolved market
Erhard vs. Martin: Match O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x495cea472ffe370c0d027d7e1535cbea1090dafe6d85703d7fbf8d5cd8835a74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,665 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9726…892ebacked Over | 50c | 8,123$4,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,061.62 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked Under | 2c | 5,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +199.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…66b9backed Under | 1c | 3,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef0…f14cbacked Under | 5c | 2,800$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…7961backed Under | 50c | 2,043$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…2454backed Under | 50c | 2,034$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee9f…b134backed Under | 50c | 2,030$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…a070backed Under | 50c | 2,017$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed Under | 2c | 1,400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 2c | 1,400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d9…d520backed Under | 25c | 1,000$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f4…4a4abacked Under | 25c | 900$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…c148backed Under | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ed…2c6dbacked Under | 4c | 370$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +349%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 326 | 49.1%160 W · 166 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 44c | 52.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…876dbacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 46c | 27.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Erhard vs. Martin: Match O/U 22.5this page
- Kigali 2: Mathys Erhard vs Andrej MartinAndrej Martin won
- Mathys Erhard vs. Andrej Martin: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Erhard vs MartinErhard won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.