CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs RUSTEC (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49807aa658e0b0753fc490bbae0cc5099d16714623ac734220daced0a5245025
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hashirasof Hashiras, RUSTEC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5407…251cbacked RUSTEC | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hashiras | 52c | 1,888$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.06 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked RUSTEC | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 3.6%7 W · 187 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked RUSTEC | 52c | 776.99$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.04 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…07a7backed Hashiras | 40c | 515.88$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.64 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Hashiras | 40c | 501.35$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.62 | 836 | 43.5%364 W · 472 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed RUSTEC | 59c | 410.18$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.76 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed RUSTEC | 55c | 391.98$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.59 | 276 | 47.1%130 W · 146 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Hashiras | 45c | 379.76$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.46 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked Hashiras | 48c | 322.57$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.39 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed RUSTEC | 56c | 300.9$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.5 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed RUSTEC | 27c | 280.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Hashiras | 78c | 262.42$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked RUSTEC | 69c | 245.44$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.53 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Hashiras | 77c | 205.03$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Hashiras | 41c | 202.93$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.73 | 750 | 48.4%363 W · 387 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Hashiras | 45c | 198.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.03 | 498 | 43%214 W · 284 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Hashiras | 48c | 193.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.76 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…0ea1backed Hashiras | 50c | 192.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Hashiras | 70c | 191.24$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 815 | 51.7%421 W · 394 L | +26.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Hashiras | 73c | 167.7$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Hashiras | 43c | 162.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Hashiras | 41c | 129.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 2,527 | 43.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L | +42.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hashiras | 73c | 127.59$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed RUSTEC | 57c | 121.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Hashiras | 40c | 120.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 275 | 44%121 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed RUSTEC | 57c | 118.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 474 | 47.5%225 W · 249 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked RUSTEC | 28c | 118.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…e024backed Hashiras | 44c | 110.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…471fbacked RUSTEC | 60c | 110.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 357 | 52.9%189 W · 168 L | +22.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked RUSTEC | 34c | 109.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Hashiras | 48c | 109.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 2,397 | 42.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Hashiras | 45c | 101.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 275 | 56.4%155 W · 120 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked RUSTEC | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed RUSTEC | 21c | 99.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed RUSTEC | 55c | 94.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Hashiras | 50c | 94.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 468 | 43.4%203 W · 265 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed RUSTEC | 30c | 87.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 2,393 | 46.7%1,118 W · 1,275 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Hashiras | 47c | 86.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 815 | 44.4%362 W · 453 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed RUSTEC | 23c | 84.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 700 | 32%224 W · 476 L | -45.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed RUSTEC | 30c | 74.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 284 | 34.9%99 W · 185 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Hashiras | 41c | 72.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 2,605 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L | +97.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Hashiras | 42c | 68.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked RUSTEC | 23c | 66.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 270 | 15.2%41 W · 229 L | -41.9wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…3a39backed Hashiras | 47c | 61.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked Hashiras | 43c | 56.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa094…3f07backed RUSTEC | 21c | 55.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…c3b4backed RUSTEC | 59c | 54.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 339 | 50.7%172 W · 167 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073c…02d3backed Hashiras | 76c | 51.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed RUSTEC | 59c | 48.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 370 | 50.5%187 W · 183 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b48…73e2backed Hashiras | 69c | 47.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked RUSTEC | 56c | 46.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Hashiras | 76c | 43.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1,548 | 33.9%524 W · 1,024 L | -73.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked RUSTEC | 32c | 38.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 216 | 23.6%51 W · 165 L | -27.4wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Hashiras | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed RUSTEC | 57c | 34.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…1c3cbacked RUSTEC | 43c | 29.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked Hashiras | 40c | 28.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…3bc8backed RUSTEC | 59c | 24.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Hashiras | 68c | 23.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 45 | 77.8%35 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Hashiras | 80c | 22.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -19.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Hashiras | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 89 | 88.8%79 W · 10 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 77cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs RUSTEC (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs RUSTEC - Map 1 WinnerHashiras won
- Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs RUSTEC - Map 2 WinnerHashiras won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.