NFL · resolved market
Will the 49ers beat the Rams by 3 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49c6b76dabcbf4a84e2c429bf5849a6115273c4143743a953cd83ca4e4613acf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ramsof 49ers, Rams
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd398…c487backed 49ers | 54c | 5,100$2,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,756 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -8.7wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a1…358dbacked Rams | 46c | 4,778$2,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Rams | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked 49ers | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed 49ers | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…bfa4backed Rams | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…1e02backed Rams | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 49ers beat the Rams by 3 or more points?this page
- Will Isaac Guerendo score a touchdown?No won
- Will the 49ers and Rams combine for 49 or more points?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.