Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49d39d099cc31081ccac0def155182aaeec9db094afffadd8b1338e1ee2634a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 46c | 46,179$21,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,923.53 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 56c | 12,489$6,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,941.56 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 12,289$6,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,574.35 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 4,026$2,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.64 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 45c | 2,772$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 54c | 2,383$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.53 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 56c | 1,750$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.01 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb15…0f02backed Over | 55c | 1,745$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 1,230$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.04 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 45c | 911.78$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.37 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 869$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 52c | 573.74$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.14 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 53c | 495$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.35 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Over | 22c | 451.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 55c | 417.37$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.82 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 59c | 398$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.82 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 52c | 281.1$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.17 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Over | 45c | 263.55$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 50c | 200.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 53c | 190.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 32c | 174$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 35c | 143.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 56c | 127.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Over | 52c | 126.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 56c | 110.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…bdc2backed Over | 51c | 103.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 22c | 98.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b84…48e3backed Over | 56c | 74.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 55c | 74.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 46c | 71.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 19c | 59.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…8ff4backed Over | 57c | 58.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb7…dd4bbacked Over | 49c | 55.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 54c | 49.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 38c | 44.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 45c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 56c | 31.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 55c | 28.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Over | 57c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 52c | 21.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 53c | 20.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.