Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3128ceae1c68768ee6f7ac06fe61a5698c381697ef135ef8a121bb0c2f011831
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 5,808$2,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,681.09 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 25c | 3,200$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401.01 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 69c | 1,309$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.94 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 1,123$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.98 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…9164backed Over | 80c | 1,057$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 52c | 964.38$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.38 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 75c | 953.73$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.78 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 25c | 713.43$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.58 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 19c | 708.71$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.89 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 66c | 607.78$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.78 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…acddbacked Over | 78c | 544.75$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 71c | 525$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5f…8a9bbacked Over | 43c | 470$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 458.01$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.26 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 36c | 377.07$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 21c | 308$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 42c | 287.31$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.94 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 65c | 260$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…8714backed Over | 64c | 249.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 42c | 235.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.52 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 52c | 191.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 48c | 158.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe1…f730backed Under | 53c | 125.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 20c | 98.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…b7e9backed Under | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…c9ffbacked Over | 20c | 83.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +398.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 39c | 29.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 37c | 28.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked Under | 75c | 26.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 64c | 21.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae87…5739backed Under | 72c | 17.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc2…757cbacked Under | 79c | 16.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa321…d246backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.