Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49feea83166b8d5bfb947b8978b9dfbe3594956392f5de0437a35f405d761899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Augsburgof VfB Stuttgart, FC Augsburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed FC Augsburg | 60c | 11,549$6,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,618.48 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed VfB Stuttgart | 40c | 10,639$4,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,255.6 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked VfB Stuttgart | 39c | 204$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked FC Augsburg | 59c | 157.02$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked VfB Stuttgart | 41c | 65.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed VfB Stuttgart | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed VfB Stuttgart | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed VfB Stuttgart | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed VfB Stuttgart | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked VfB Stuttgart | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed VfB Stuttgart | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked VfB Stuttgart | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed VfB Stuttgart | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed FC Augsburg | 59c | 45.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…ec43backed VfB Stuttgart | 42c | 34.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…79efbacked VfB Stuttgart | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed FC Augsburg | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)this page
- VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.