World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49ff4a71faa070f5325e76300f0ecbb432ac71c6bfd2c5e9a46224ea8bf73ab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x688c…cc5bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,014$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 71c | 591$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.44 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 30c | 433.07$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.23 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 170.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 110.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 37c | 88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 33c | 76.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 69.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 67.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 64c | 64.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 64.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 63.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 62.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15c0…befdbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 18c | 58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 34c | 51.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 48.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 43.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 40.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 40.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 30.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 69c | 29.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 21.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 69c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.