Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Lehecka (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a0f34ddcdddcad0a0351f3c0c9c8fd08d8bc93c27e27fd908f8f7d105ef2f9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Leheckaof Musetti, Lehecka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Musetti | 2c | 1,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 60 | 3.3%2 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -92%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Lehecka | 64c | 1,013$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.8 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Musetti | 39c | 733.68$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.09 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Musetti | 49c | 523.99$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.16 | 247 | 47.4%117 W · 130 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Musetti | 36c | 472.47$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.96 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Lehecka | 64c | 379.68$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.01 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c3…c2e6backed Musetti | 40c | 286.47$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…21cdbacked Lehecka | 48c | 281.78$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.14 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Lehecka | 65c | 224.01$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Lehecka | 59c | 217.89$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Musetti | 40c | 214.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Musetti | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Musetti | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed Musetti | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Lehecka | 65c | 196.52$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…498cbacked Lehecka | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Musetti | 36c | 131.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Lehecka | 48c | 113.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Musetti | 37c | 108.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Musetti | 35c | 78.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 587 | 34.6%203 W · 384 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Musetti | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Lehecka | 64c | 53.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Lehecka | 60c | 51.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…a39bbacked Lehecka | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e52…4b5ebacked Musetti | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Musetti | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Lehecka (+1.5)this page
- Jiri Lehecka vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Lehecka vs. Musetti: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Lehecka vs. Musetti: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Lehecka vs. Musetti: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Lehecka vs. Musetti: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Lehecka vs. Musetti: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Lehecka vs. Musetti: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Lorenzo MusettiJiri Lehecka won
- Set 1 Winner: Lehecka vs MusettiLehecka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.