Tennis · resolved market
ITF Frankfurt: Arthur Bonnaud vs Julien Penzlin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a34ec14bc29d58aefbdb86c9ca53fa477cceab9b8457ba65542113d20008743
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Julien Penzlinof Arthur Bonnaud, Julien Penzlin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaf4…d5c4backed Julien Penzlin | 55c | 975.01$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.21 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Arthur Bonnaud | 45c | 599.98$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.71 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arthur Bonnaud | 24c | 582.9$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.41 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…492ebacked Julien Penzlin | 59c | 243.9$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 284 | 54.2%154 W · 130 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Julien Penzlin | 54c | 210$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 636 | 50.3%320 W · 316 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Julien Penzlin | 55c | 174.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 618 | 57.8%357 W · 261 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Arthur Bonnaud | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Arthur Bonnaud | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 217 | 45.2%98 W · 119 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Arthur Bonnaud | 45c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 380 | 47.1%179 W · 201 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arthur Bonnaud | 45c | 92.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 2,304 | 51.1%1,177 W · 1,127 L | +10.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Arthur Bonnaud | 21c | 91.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 507 | 46.5%236 W · 271 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Arthur Bonnaud | 45c | 90.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 250 | 48.8%122 W · 128 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Julien Penzlin | 71c | 60.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 8,396 | 42.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L | -162.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Arthur Bonnaud | 27c | 52.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Arthur Bonnaud | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Julien Penzlin | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Arthur Bonnaud | 31c | 39.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3,541 | 42.4%1,501 W · 2,040 L | -44.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Arthur Bonnaud | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Julien Penzlin | 52c | 24.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Julien Penzlin | 58c | 22.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 1,624 | 54.4%883 W · 741 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ce2abacked Julien Penzlin | 79c | 21.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 207 | 72%149 W · 58 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Julien Penzlin | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Julien Penzlin | 63c | 15.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Julien Penzlin | 75c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 663 | 47.1%312 W · 351 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477c…fe04backed Julien Penzlin | 76c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.