Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a9b1fd53267ad9e2e4e560886ad44c0e5f9dcd01bd8ac19b889659934f81e51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 7c | 1,891$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.07 | 202 | 39.6%80 W · 122 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 918.89$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.64 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 72c | 535$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.2 | 239 | 20.9%50 W · 189 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked No | 61c | 520$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.2 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 28c | 518.44$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.28 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 44c | 332.01$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.74 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 70c | 312.33$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.63 | 466 | 51.9%242 W · 224 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 39c | 231.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.46 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 39c | 103$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 227 | 64.8%147 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked No | 37c | 65.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b7…64ccbacked No | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Derby County FC win on 2025-12-20?No won
- Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.