Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71cb491ce55840097de4d994a60620373b38fba509d9933651718a519ac8a89a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 48c | 30,000$14,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,400 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 52c | 28,682$14,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,767.28 | 211 | 54.5%115 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 49c | 7,400$3,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,626 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 6,331$3,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,947.72 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 56c | 3,241$1,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.02 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 50c | 2,318$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.82 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 1,567$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.53 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 51c | 1,058$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.61 | 308 | 51.3%158 W · 150 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 31c | 746.23$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.6 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 49c | 619$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.31 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 47c | 613.75$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.46 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 48c | 466.55$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.94 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…73ebbacked Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes | 32c | 412.68$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.7 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 58c | 390.29$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.26 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 68c | 371$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.45 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked No | 74c | 320.15$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 51c | 275.04$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.77 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 52c | 225.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.32 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed Yes | 42c | 200.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa6…0b3bbacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 49c | 193.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 495 | 44.2%219 W · 276 L | -20.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 328 | 22.3%73 W · 255 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 191 | 28.8%55 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked No | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 364 | 62.9%229 W · 135 L | +32.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 202 | 39.6%80 W · 122 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe406…4cc1backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 182 | 51.6%94 W · 88 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 52c | 32.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 48c | 30.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b7…64ccbacked Yes | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked No | 58c | 28.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…2b64backed Yes | 51c | 27.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Yes | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 466 | 51.9%242 W · 224 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 52c | 19.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will Derby County FC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.