TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,379
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,379 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins15c317$48 inWon+$269.458,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins17c286.39$49 inWon+$237.712,17239.9%866 W · 1,306 L+1.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks63c209.73$132 inLost-$132.423,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e4…a1adbacked Arizona Diamondbacks47c200$93 inLost-$93.0213664.7%88 W · 48 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Miami Marlins69c122$84 inWon+$37.825942.4%25 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins61c114$69 inWon+$44.764,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba34…c745backed Miami Marlins16c93.25$15 inWon+$78.337055.7%39 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Miami Marlins14c77$11 inWon+$66.3670546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204a…a4eabacked Miami Marlins20c63$13 inWon+$50.41040%4 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick16cpaid+241.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.