Tennis · resolved market
Lugano: August Holmgren vs Kaichi Uchida
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aa746244fab7fb67b64741a493d1dc78f0c1230a8faaf53fab7cc1f5f6a9987
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Holmgrenof Holmgren, Uchida
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Uchida | 28c | 7,098$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016.7 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Holmgren | 60c | 4,658$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,858.14 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Holmgren | 72c | 1,026$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.9 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Uchida | 26c | 1,001$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.7 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Holmgren | 70c | 894$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.45 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Uchida | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 680 | 26.2%178 W · 502 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Holmgren | 74c | 838.46$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.49 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Uchida | 20c | 651.19$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 460 | 30.4%140 W · 320 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Uchida | 36c | 577.71$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.13 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Holmgren | 70c | 500.16$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.33 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…8276backed Uchida | 39c | 492$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.88 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Holmgren | 57c | 302.94$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…9ab0backed Uchida | 37c | 273.68$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 672 | 39.1%263 W · 409 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Holmgren | 63c | 269.35$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Holmgren | 71c | 232$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…8ba4backed Uchida | 38c | 178.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Holmgren | 75c | 178.61$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Holmgren | 64c | 169.13$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Holmgren | 71c | 165$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Uchida | 26c | 163.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…412ebacked Holmgren | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…609abacked Uchida | 20c | 156.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Uchida | 37c | 136.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Holmgren | 80c | 135.44$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 290 | 63.8%185 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…d0b9backed Uchida | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 707 | 29.1%206 W · 501 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Holmgren | 61c | 115$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Uchida | 37c | 113.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…d493backed Holmgren | 63c | 111.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Holmgren | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537a…7447backed Holmgren | 67c | 98.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Holmgren | 77c | 82.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Uchida | 27c | 74.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Holmgren | 71c | 59.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Holmgren | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Uchida | 43c | 44.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Uchida | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Holmgren | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a7…b344backed Holmgren | 64c | 37.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +39%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Holmgren | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Holmgren | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…ed22backed Uchida | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 184 | 47.3%87 W · 97 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1309…8d93backed Holmgren | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Holmgren | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 770 | 47.9%369 W · 401 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked Holmgren | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…11ffbacked Holmgren | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Holmgren | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 275 | 46.5%128 W · 147 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.