Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-04-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4abee50b9575368fbfbd4d09e9810235af24287c30baf8820661ecdd0e8a405c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 15c | 2,843$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.12 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…a19bbacked No | 79c | 2,534$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 23c | 1,600$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 15c | 1,369$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.87 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 10c | 973.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked Yes | 6c | 855.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 23c | 501.24$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.33 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 22c | 199.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 79c | 193.85$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 170.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8b03backed No | 79c | 127$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1548…294ebacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 21c | 97.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Yes | 20c | 76.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 80c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 23c | 65.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked Yes | 22c | 48.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 23.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…2bf2backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd16e…0f4abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-04-05?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-04-05?Yes won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.