Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe26b356e590b86329be6273281fad78b507862914f0c40d3cceb91ab1dcef181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,312$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.55 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 24c | 1,258$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.82 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 25c | 889.46$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.5 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Yes | 25c | 885.12$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.16 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 26c | 387.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 245.3$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 23c | 212.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 209.54$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked No | 75c | 203.43$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 76c | 194.51$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 75c | 192.51$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked No | 75c | 184.88$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 74c | 174.69$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 174.41$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 170$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed No | 77c | 154.2$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed No | 74c | 153.1$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked No | 74c | 127.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked No | 75c | 120.27$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed No | 74c | 103.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 74c | 81.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…3699backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked No | 74c | 66.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb38…f78dbacked No | 75c | 64.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…1001backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 46.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…3e64backed No | 75c | 40.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…a7fdbacked No | 75c | 39.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 78c | 34.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…9588backed Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 76c | 32.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 66c | 26.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 77cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…5bb7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 74c | 18.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-04-05?Yes won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-04-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.